Peramalan Hasil Studi Terhadap Kehadiran Mahasiswa Menggunakan Metode Backpropagation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17977/um068v2i12022p20-26Keywords:
peramalan, propagasi balik, kehadiran siswaAbstract
Student success is an important component of higher education institutions because it is considered an important criterion for assessing the quality of educational institutions. Student success is assessed based on academic achievement, activeness, satisfaction, willingness to learn, skills, and competence, attendance, educational outcomes, and final performance results. In this study, the focus is on the data object of student arrivals to make forecasts. In supporting forecasting, there are several methods that can be used, starting from artificial intelligence, or artificial intelligence (AI). The method of artificial intelligence used in this study is the backpropagation method. Forecasting results with a small error rate indicate that the method is good for forecasting. It is expected that forecasting carried out with the backpropagation method can achieve a small error rate. The best forecasting results came in semester 3 with an MSE value of 0.0388. The best GPA value is also in semester 3. In conclusion, semester 3 is the best semester both in terms of forecasting and GPA value.
Keberhasilan mahasiswa merupakan komponen penting lembaga pendidikan tinggi karena dianggap sebagai kriteria penting untuk menilai kualitas lembaga pendidikan. Keberhasilan siswa dinilai berdasarkan prestasi akademik, keaktifan, kepuasan, kemauan belajar, keterampilan, dan kompetensi, kehadiran, hasil pendidikan, dan hasil kinerja akhir. Pada penelitian ini fokusnya adalah pada objek data kedatangan siswa untuk membuat peramalan. Dalam mendukung peramalan, ada beberapa metode yang bisa digunakan, mulai dari kecerdasan buatan, atau artificial intelligence (AI). Metode kecerdasan buatan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode backpropagation. Hasil peramalan dengan tingkat kesalahan yang kecil menunjukkan bahwa metode tersebut baik untuk peramalan. Diharapkan peramalan yang dilakukan dengan metode backpropagation dapat mencapai tingkat kesalahan yang kecil. Hasil peramalan terbaik diperoleh pada semester 3 dengan nilai MSE sebesar 0,0388. Terlihat bahwa nilai IPK terbaik juga ada di semester 3. Kesimpulannya, semester 3 adalah semester terbaik baik dari segi peramalan maupun nilai IPK.
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