ANALISIS VOLATILITAS INDEKS HARGA SAHAM DAN INDIKATOR EKONOMI MAKRO DI TENGAH OPTIMISME PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA
Keywords:
Volatilitas, Indeks Harga Saham, Indikator Makroekonomi, Inflasi, Sektor Keuangan, VUCA, Kebijakan EkonomiAbstract
Optimisme pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang diproyeksikan mencapai 8% per tahun menjadi peluang besar, namun menghadapi tantangan kondisi VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity). Penelitian ini menganalisis volatilitas indeks harga saham sektor keuangan di Indonesia, khususnya sektor LQ45, dan menghubungkannya dengan indikator makroekonomi seperti inflasi dan suku bunga. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa sektor non-perbankan (TLKM) memiliki volatilitas yang rendah, sedangkan sektor rokok (GGRM) dan farmasi (KLBF) menunjukkan volatilitas tinggi. Volatilitas ini dipengaruhi oleh dinamika inflasi dan perubahan kebijakan moneter. Penelitian ini memberikan rekomendasi bagi investor untuk mempertimbangkan profil risiko setiap sektor dan bagi pembuat kebijakan untuk memperkuat stabilitas ekonomi guna mengantisipasi ketidakpastian di masa depan.
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