KETIDAKSTABILAN INFLASI VS GEJOLAK SAHAM: DINAMIKA ICBP DI PANDEMI COVID-19 TAHUN 2020 - 2023

Abstract

Abstract
This study analyzes the relationship between inflation volatility and stock price
volatility of PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP) during the COVID-19
pandemic (2020-2023). ICBP, a major player in Indonesia's consumer goods
sector, faced significant economic fluctuations due to global instability during
the pandemic. Using secondary data from monthly inflation rates and ICBP
stock prices, the research employs the Jarque-Bera normality test for data
validation and the Pearson correlation test to examine the relationship
between the two variables. The results show a significant negative correlation
of -0.467051 (p < 0.05) between inflation volatility and stock price volatility. This
suggests that higher inflation volatility is associated with lower stock price
volatility, which can be explained by theories like the Fisher Effect and the
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, where inflation reduces purchasing
power and increases discount rates. Additionally, the study highlights the
sensitivity of the consumer goods sector to macroeconomic factors such as
inflation. This research offers insights for investors and policymakers,
emphasizing the role of inflation in influencing stock market dynamics. It
underscores the importance of portfolio diversification to mitigate risks arising
from global economic uncertainties and provides policy recommendations for
fostering economic and financial stability.