DINAMIKA VOLATILITAS INDEKS HARGA SAHAM DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI: MENGELOLA OPTIMISME PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA DI ERA VUCA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17977/um066v4i52024p5Keywords:
VUCA, Volatilitas indeks saham, Indikator makroekonomi, Pertumbuhan ekonomi, Kebijakan ekonomi, Stock index volatility, Macroeconomic indicators, Economic growth, Economic policyAbstract
Abstrak
Era VUCA (volatilitas, ketidakpastian, kompleksitas, ambiguitas) telah membawa tantangan yang signifikan terhadap stabilitas ekonomi global, termasuk di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dinamika volatilitas indeks harga saham dan indikator makroekonomi, serta mengkaji pengelolaan optimisme pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam konteks ketidakpastian global. Data indeks harga saham dan indikator ekonomi makro, termasuk inflasi, nilai tukar, dan suku bunga, digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi hubungan dinamis antar variabel melalui analisis kuantitatif berdasarkan perhitungan ekonometrik sederhana. Temuan menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas indeks harga saham memiliki korelasi yang signifikan dengan indikator ekonomi makro tertentu. Selain itu, pengelolaan optimisme memerlukan implementasi sinergi kebijakan fiskal dan moneter yang adaptif.
Abstract
The VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) era has introduced significant challenges to global economic stability, including in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of stock price index volatility and macroeconomic indicators, as well as to examine the management of economic growth optimism in the context of global uncertainty. The data on stock price indices and macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates, are employed to identify the dynamic relationships between variables through quantitative analysis based on simple econometric calculations. The findings indicate that the volatility of the stock price index has a significant correlation with specific macroeconomic indicators. Moreover, the management of optimism necessitates the implementation of adaptive fiscal and monetary policy synergies.
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